Shelley’s study is a multivariate analysis based on previous research (Shelly, 2008). Shelley uses the original dataset in this paper and evaluates a series of ordered logit models with a dependent variable measuring state legislation and lawsuits against the No Child Left Behind (Shelly, 2008). This methodology is appropriate because it allows us to identify factors that scientists can use to predict when states may undertake similar challenges to federal regulation (Doan & McFarlane, 2012). Official state challenges will remain extremely rare, but laws that undermine state autonomy and create significant problems for states may encourage wealthier states to challenge them, especially when the federal government threatens to suspend funding or is inflexible in its demands.
The most predictable factors are the Hispanic population, poverty, special education, voting for Bush, and highly qualified teachers to reach statistical significance, the most predictable for the state’s problems with this program (Shelly, 2008). The fact that an increase in the state’s Hispanic population leads to a higher level of official No Child Left Behind calls suggests that states struggle with handling English language learner students. Hispanic children are disproportionately poor and most likely do not speak English, which makes them one of the most challenging subgroups to bring into compliance with the requirements of the adequate yearly progress of No Child Left Behind (Shelly, 2008). While the particular education variable does not meet generally accepted standards of statistical significance, its effect has a negative relationship with the dependent variable in all models presented here and in the supplement, which again indicates that an increase in the hard-to-learn group leads to a higher level of problems. In particular, they offer predictions about how the conflict between the states and the federal government will affect the law during the reauthorization debate and beyond.
The scale of the problem that federal regulation creates for the states will affect the likelihood of an official challenge. As follows from the strength of the effect of the Hispanic variable, states where the problem that federal action is aimed at is more widespread may resist because they feel that the federal government has made unrealistic demands that they may not be able to meet (Shelly, 2008). National funding levels can have a decisive impact on how states assess the scale of the problems created by regulation. As discussed earlier, the lack of significance for the federal funding variable suggests that conditions become dependent on even the most minor national contributions, so a difference in the level of federal assistance will not make one state more likely to challenge than another (Shelly, 2008). Moreover, as seen in the example of No Child Left Behind, the lack of federal flexibility can cut off less dramatic forms of state influence and make states feel that the only remedy available to them is a formal challenge (Behind, 2002). When the federal government is willing to compromise, states may feel they can use the usual channels of intergovernmental relations to ensure that implementation will be manageable.
While these five factors should help determine future formal problems, any structure trying to predict them should be flexible and its developer modest. Even when these factors seem to lean in favor of a legal challenge, the numerous dynamics identified by federalism researchers explaining why states usually assume a subordinate role are still active and still very powerful. It should be expected that States will continue to use any other option when they can. Only when these options are not available, and these aspects are highly favorable for solving official problems, will States consider them.
References
Behind, N. C. L. (2002). No child left behind act. Washington, DC: US Department of Education.
Doan, A. E., & McFarlane, D. R. (2012). Saying no to abstinence-only education: An analysis of state decision-making. Publius: The journal of federalism, 42(4), 613-635. Web.
Shelly, B. (2008). Rebels and their causes: State resistance to no child left behind. Publius: The Journal of Federalism, 38(3), 444-468. Web.